Chipotle’s same-store traffic trends are expected to be negative for the third quarter, according to data firm Placer.ai.
But overall, Chipotle saw more guests visit restaurants year-over-year, in part because of the 3,800-unit chain’s growth.
The fast-casual segment is expected to see significant headwinds, as third-quarter earnings start coming out this week. Low-income consumers are cutting back on dining out, unemployment among younger consumers is growing, and many fast-casual chains—including Chipotle—are lapping strong results in 2024. Chipotle is scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday after market.
Placer.ai found same-store visits to Chipotle declined 3.2% during the quarter, despite the chain’s stepped-up promotions this year. That would track a 4.9% decline in traffic during the second quarter, which was offset by a 0.9% increase in average check.
However, chain-wide visits to Chipotle increased 0.5% year over year, in part because of the chain’s mostly affluent customer base, the report said, but also because of growth. The chain is expecting to add 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurants this year.
The fast-casual segment as a whole has also seen traffic increase 0.7% year over year during the quarter, the report said.
Chipotle, however, has been working hard to drive traffic.
The chain offered loyalty members a chance to earn a host of more rewards during a Summer of Extras that lasted from June through the end of August.
During the quarter, the chain launched its first-ever rewards program exclusively for college students, as well as a new family-style ordering package dubbed Groupotle for feeding four to six people.
The brand also brought back carne asada and launched a new Red Chimichurri sauce—though Wall Street analysts say the $1 cost for the sauce add-on could hurt Chipotle’s efforts to improve its value proposition.
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