Consumer sentiment is at an all-time low — inclusive of pandemic readings — and higher gas prices aren’t providing any relief. That said, the restaurant industry has shown a tremendous amount of resiliency, particularly concepts that cater to higher income consumers, who are still spending quite freely.
In other words, the state of the consumer is “complex.” This is how National Restaurant Association Senior Vice President of Industry Research and Knowledge Chad Moutray opened up Saturday’s session at the National Restaurant Association Show titled, “The 2026 State of the Industry: Position Yourself for Success in the Face of Uncertainty.”
In addition to plummeting consumer sentiment, he said there are plenty of red flags operators should be aware of. For instance, 35% of consumers now say they spend more than they take in every month, while two-thirds say they’re struggling to make ends meet.
Further, four in 10 consumers reduced their restaurant frequency in 2025.
“Traffic has been an issue the last couple of years and that is likely to continue this year,” he said.
The good news for restaurants is that people are still prioritizing going out to eat.
“Even if they don’t take big vacation or buy a dishwasher, they’re still going out to eat. People get tired of cooking, they want to try something new. That’s giving the restaurant sector a little resilience,” he said.
And though gas prices have become a bigger pain point, Moutray points out that the impact should be nominal on the $1 trillion-plus industry, estimating it to erode about 0.6% in industrywide sales if they remain high all year.
“At the end of the day, people have to tighten their belt a little,” he said. “But it’s not all going to come from restaurants.”
Restaurant operators should still cater to anxious consumers, who are looking for more discounts and fewer add-ons.
Fogo de Chão and Chicago-based DineAmic Hospitality have both experienced these trends. That said, they’ve both also experienced some significant green shoots; for example, record Valentine’s Day and Mother’s Day sales this year.
Michael Breed, chief marketing officer at Fogo de Chão, said his concept is a bit more insulated in the current economy because it is “celebration forward” which allows it to serve a broad spectrum of guests.
“But, it’s important for us to have price optionality and service other occasions as well,” he said. “The key proof point for us is how we’re doing on celebration moments, but mid-week, mid-sized parties, we’re seeing some softness.
Stephen Stoll, chief operating officer of 16-concept DineAmic Hospitality Chief, said his company has exceeded expectations this year, adding that Chicago is performing well in general. Much of that tailwind, however, has also come from celebration and weekend traffic. DineAmic has adjusted its weekday models to include expanded happy hours and simpler messaging, such as most cocktails for $8 and most appetizers for $8.
Fogo has also played a bit more in value, but considers it as experience for the price point, versus just price point.
“When consumers are under pressure, their expectations are only going up and our job in the hospitality business is to exceed those expectations,” Breed said. “That requires innovation and investment back into the consumer experience.”
Fogo has created promotions like the Best of Brazil, which includes a selection of its most popular fire-roasted cuts, seasonal Market Table, sides, and more. This has presented a lower entry point for pressured consumers while also giving higher-income consumers permission to add an additional occasion, he said.
“Everyone loves value, and not just price point, but how we enhance the experience at that price point,” Breed said.
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