The past couple of years have been tough on the consumer, as rising prices for roughly everything sapped consumer buying power. Many people cut back on dining frequency, leading to weak traffic and a value war that has raged for two years.
In theory, this should benefit companies with generally lower prices as consumers gravitate toward cheaper options. Historically, consumers would “trade down” to cheaper options when times got tough.
But this is 2026. The economy is weird.
We decided to put AI to the test here, to analyze whether there was a correlation at all between a restaurant chain’s price point and its sales growth, using data from Technomic Ignite and the Technomic Top 500 Chain Restaurant Report. We analyzed the data based on segment and cuisine, as well as the overall ranking.
In theory, brands with lower average check would have performed better in a trade-down scenario, at least in some segments.
We used average check because that’s our best measure, at least right now, of a restaurant’s typical price. There are all kinds of flaws with that, most notably that brands with higher average checks might perform better overall simply because they managed to convince their customers to spend more.
Regardless, there was no consistent correlation between average check and sales performance last year across the whole of the Top 500. At best, some segments had some weak to moderate correlation between price and performance. But the strength of that correlation, and whether it was positive or negative, depended entirely on segment and cuisine.
We’ll break it down by major sector.
Fast-food chains
The strongest correlation between check and performance came in the QSR beverage and snack category and the QSR chicken category. In those segments, those with higher average checks performed better, meaning that in theory premiumization won over customers more so than price.
On the other hand, there was a negative correlation between average check and performance in the coffee, Mexican and pizza sectors, so customers in those segments shifted to brands with lower prices.
We’ll throw out fast-food Mexican because that segment is thoroughly dominated by Taco Bell and its low-priced menu. The data on beverage/snack and chicken suggest that brands can win on premiumization as consumers may be driven more on quality than on strictly price.
The coffee segment has been beset by concerns that some of the biggest players—notably Starbucks—had gotten out of hand with prices and some growth brands have lower overall prices. As for the pizza segment, that is a pure price play, particularly these days, and so that result was unsurprising.
But the lack of a consistent correlation in the fast-food world likely means that a brand’s reputation and its marketing mattered more than strict price when it comes to luring customers.
Fast-casual
Fast-casual chains with higher average checks generally performed better.
There were moderately positive correlations between average check and sales performance in the Mexican, barbecue and sandwich sectors.
This is the segment where customers are more willing to pay a premium. Fast-casual chains emerged as hyper-specialized brands focused on quality at relative speed compared with casual-dining peers, so customers are less concerned with price and more concerned with quality.
In other words, go ahead and market based on price if you’re a fast-casual chain, but don’t do that too much, because that’s not what customers want.
Casual dining
Like quick-service, casual-dining brands, including traditional and upscale, had mixed results.
Generally, more targeted or international cuisines tended to perform better with higher price points while most cuisines had either a nonexistent or slightly negative correlation. Interestingly, upscale steak brands had the strongest negative correlation between average check and performance, which seems almost flukish.
Overall, however, higher checks do not predict brand performance, not even this year. Consumers are choosy, and price may be a consideration. But so is everything else. To win over customers, in other words, brands can’t focus specifically on low prices, but on everything that comes into play when it comes to brand value.