Chipotle Mexican Grill has had a difficult few months. Its CEO, Brian Niccol, left for Starbucks. And then the company reported its first negative same-store sales quarter in five years.
Both have hurt the chain’s once-stellar standing on Wall Street. The company’s stock is down 14% over the past year and more than 9% so far in 2025.
At least some investors have been left wondering whether Chipotle’s weakened sales earlier this year and its relatively sudden exposure to a disconcerted consumer are exposing structural issues that had not yet been seen. These structural problems, perhaps, could result in an extended period of sales weakness and could call into question the company's aggressive plans to double its domestic unit count to 7,000.
And there are at least some reasons to believe there could be problems. Social media erupted over portion sizes last year, which had a side effect of creating stress for employees as customers videoed their orders being put together. Some Technomic survey data has also questioned the company’s value.
It’s also possible that there are issues we do not see necessarily that could be creating some challenges.
But it’s also one quarter. As a rule, it is dangerous to draw too many conclusions from one earnings period. This is doubly true for the first quarter, when there are issues such as weather that can be disruptive. If Chipotle’s problems continue, then it’s easier to say there is a problem.
And Chipotle was not alone in its sales weakness early this year.
Publicly traded chains reported an average same-store sales decline of 0.17% last quarter, a slowdown of 130 basis points compared with the fourth quarter last year, according to data from the Restaurant Business same-store sales tracker.
Among fast-casual chains, the slowdown was more pronounced. The chains reported average same-store sales growth of 0.65% in the first quarter, down from 3.5% in the fourth quarter of last year.
The sales slowdown at Chipotle last quarter was, in fact, less pronounced than was the sales slowdown at other fast-casual chains like Cava, Wingstop and Sweetgreen. This graphic shows those slowdowns using two-year same-store sales data to filter out one-time events.
The simple fact of the matter is that the first quarter was difficult and it hit a lot of restaurant chains.
The value question is a bit trickier, because a lot of that is perception.
But it’s difficult to argue that Chipotle is anything but one of the industry’s best values, at least when it comes to the number of calories a customer could conceivably get with one of its orders.
Chipotle’s biggest strength, by a long shot, is the imminent flexibility of its menu. A customer can come in and order something as healthy or as caloric as they want. And all the chain’s ingredients work well together.
Customization is great until customers mess up their orders. That can be a problem at chains like Subway, where a customer can make the mistake of putting sweet onion teriyaki sauce on a meatball sub.
At Chipotle, this makes the brand a great value because customers can load their burritos with calories for the same price. Check out this table.
On a calories-per-dollar spent basis, Chipotle is potentially a better value than many other chains, including fast-food chains that give customers drinks with their bundled meal orders. Given the chain’s quality reputation, that value is difficult to beat.
As a side note, Chipotle’s value on those scores decline with additions like beverages or guacamole. But the chain’s customers can get a lot for their spending. That matters in the current environment, and it has generally helped Chipotle weather storms.
None of this isn’t to say that there aren’t potential issues with the fast-casual chain. The company’s real versus its perceived value could suggest marketing issues, for instance. The social media issues and tensions they caused could finally be revealing themselves in weak traffic. And the brand did just change CEOs, which is itself a potential issue in the coming months because new chief executives can often create unforeseen problems.
But if there are problems, they don't appear to be creating sales issues that other chains aren't feeling.