Consumers may or may not be rediscovering their love of casual dining restaurants, but investors sure are.
In a year in which the restaurant industry’s performance has been largely muted, again, a handful of full-service chains have stood out, thanks to some surprising performances.
Stocks in Red Robin, Cheesecake Factory, and Cracker Barrel have each doubled this year.
Brinker International, where Chili’s keeps performing amazingly well, is up 71%. Outback Steakhouse owner Bloomin’ Brands is up 68%. Texas Roadhouse (24%) and Darden (23%) have also had strong years on Wall Street.
Add in the otherworldly performance this year of Noodles & Company, which is up 187% (through end of trading Friday) as its sales have taken off, and one would think Wall Street has fallen back in love with the restaurant industry again.
That isn’t necessarily the case. The median restaurant stock is up just 2% so far in 2026. By comparison, the S&P 500 Index is up 12.1%.
For every restaurant stock that is up so far this year, there is one stock that is down.
Because so many stocks have taken off this year, however, the average return so far this year is 22%.
And there are some notable stocks that have taken a big hit.
Wingstop, the fast-casual chicken-wing chain, has lost more than half its value, down 51%. Dave & Buster’s, meanwhile, is down 37%. And Papa Johns is down 36%.
The performance of industry stocks largely follows the performance of the restaurant business in general, where wide gaps exist in performance between some chains and others, even within their own competitive set.
Burger King, for instance, outperformed Wendy’s by more than 1,500 basis points.
Many of the brands that have seen the strongest performances so far this year are bouncing back from multi-year or even all-time lows. They’ve done so on the back of surprising sales or profit results.
Noodles & Company has perpetually struggled with weak sales and closing stores while its stock needed an 8-for-1 reverse stock split earlier this year just to avoid being delisted. Red Robin finally started showing some of the fruits of multiple comeback attempts. Both brands remain well below where they were five years ago. Noodles is down 84% over that period. Red Robin is down 60%.
Cracker Barrel, meanwhile, lost much of its value last year thanks to the controversy over a logo change. But it has seen its results improve more quickly than expected this year.
Not everybody has been so fortunate. Wingstop, the worst-performing stock this year, has seen same-store sales fall for six quarters.
Papa Johns’ sales problems have worsened this year. And Dave & Buster’s is again looking for a new CEO.
Among the biggest names, McDonald’s stock is down nearly 11% and is down 14% over the past 12 months. The company’s traffic is down again while same-store sales are now sluggish. And now some franchisees are questioning the company’s plans.
Yum Brands’ stock is up 2% so far this year and 4% over the past 12 months, though some of that weakness has come more recently in the aftermath of the cyclospora outbreak at Taco Bell.
Starbucks stock, meanwhile, is up 29% so far this year thanks to sales improvement as the chain’s turnaround under CEO Brian Niccol has taken hold.
Yet this year so far, some previously struggling brands, especially full-service concepts, have been winning over investors.