We were at the National Restaurant Association Show last week. The best part of going to the event, other than seeing people we know and like, is trendspotting. And then trying to see which of those trends are fads and which will change the business.
In recent years, if you visited that show, you’d think the future was plant-based. There was plant-based everything at the event. Plant-based chicken. Plant-based sausage. Plant-based eggs. Plant-based this. Plant-based that.
Not so this year. Sure, plant-based milks were there, such as Oatly, but the fake meats that dominated in recent years had largely vanished outside of a couple of niche players.
So I guess we can call it a fad.
The plant-based fad was dealt another big blow this week when the Massachusetts-based Clover Food Lab called it a day. The chain is closing its remaining 11 locations this week after declaring two years ago that it would have 60 peppered around the New England area.
Several plant-based chains have either pulled back or shut down altogether, including the Kevin Hart concept Hart House. The founder of Slutty Vegan filed for bankruptcy, as did the vegan chain Planta, which was sold to its lender. Veggie Grill shut 40% of its locations and was sold to Next Level Burger.
Restaurant chains that a few years ago were falling all over themselves to offer plant-based burgers are now selling half-pound burgers and fried chicken—notably McDonald’s, which tested its McPlant in the U.S., realized it wasn’t going to work, then stopped talking about it.
Beyond Meat, which counts former McDonald’s CEO Don Thompson among its early investors, has lost more than 99%(!!!) of its valuation over the past five years and is now offering, you guessed it, protein drinks.
The fad emerged before the pandemic as companies developed processes for using various plant proteins to create fake versions of meat. They hoped to generate the same level of popularity for fake meat as plant-based milks made from almonds or oats, which are now used by a ridiculous 44% of U.S. households, according to Michigan State University.
The companies targeted meat eaters, which is smart because the population of vegetarians in the U.S. remains below 10% and has not changed in decades. The belief was that a lot of meat eaters wanted to cut back a bit, either for environmental reasons or for health reasons.
The offerings were popular enough to lure flocks of customers, at least early on. They have also proved popular on college campuses where idealistic young folks demand such options.
It was all enough to get eager investors to pump funds into plant-based concepts, including Clover, which received an investment from former Panera Bread CEO Ron Shaich. Comedian Kevin Hart put his name behind Hart House. Danny Meyer invested in Slutty Vegan.
But the demand did not last for long, for a variety of reasons. There was a weird political backlash against the products, for one thing. Inflation became a primary concern for consumers and many of the plant-based products came with higher prices. That likely trumped environmental concerns.
The demand was always a bit dubious to us, however, because plant-based milk sales come at least in part from consumers who are lactose intolerant. In addition, consumers don’t drink milk so much as they use it for other things, like cereal, coffee or smoothies.
It’s far different biting into a piece of chicken or a burger.
And health is always a challenging issue for restaurant chains. Claims about the healthfulness of plant-based meats are mixed. They have more fiber and less cholesterol but are ultra-processed and have a lot of sodium. They also don’t have some of the nutrients that you’d typically get eating plants.
Regardless, consumers’ views on health are fluid and the processed nature of the products ran afoul of the Make America Healthy Again, or MAHA movement.
And regardless, consumers don’t go out to eat to be healthy so much as they go out to eat to indulge. That makes health-focused concepts a tough bet, no matter how many people insist consumers are more interested in eating healthy. When it comes to restaurants, health will always—always—take a back seat to indulgence.