Starbucks may be having sales and traffic challenges that have persisted longer than anybody in Seattle expected a year and a half ago. But that doesn’t appear to be hurting the allure of the chain’s annual Pumpkin Spice Latte reintroduction.
The drink returned to Starbucks menus on Tuesday, something the chain has done every fall for more than two decades. You can find more details on that menu from my colleague Pat Cobe here.
This is one of the most popular days of the year at the coffee shop giant, and no matter how bad things seem at Starbucks, customers always turn out for some pumpkin spice. A year ago, for instance, traffic surged 24.1% on PSL introduction day, according to the foot traffic tracking firm Placer.ai. That came during a quarter in which its same-store sales declined 4%.
The year before that, traffic on PSL Day was up 25%.
Placer.ai typically analyzes traffic compared with recent averages, rather than year-ago numbers. So it shows the bump that Starbucks gets compared with how things are going at the time. The consistency of the traffic spikes shows just how big a day that is for the company.
This year’s launch comes at a crucial time for the chain, which is trying to lift itself out of an 18-month slump.
Starbucks’ same-store sales have declined in the U.S. for the past six quarters, with negative-on-negative sales more recently despite a slew of efforts, including upgraded in-store experiences, more marketing and operations changes.
To illustrate just how important this period is for the chain, Starbucks pushed to implement its new “Green Apron” service model in stores across the country in time for the annual fall menu launch. The service model invests in store-level labor, and gives general managers say in how to deploy that labor. In theory, more labor should yield better service times that are proven to drive traffic.
Whether the fall menu can in fact lift Starbucks out of its sales slump remains to be seen. It didn’t work last year, after all. And consumers have proven their willingness to visit restaurant chains when a marketing effort prompts them to do so.
McDonald’s, for instance, generated strong sales early last quarter from the release of its Minecraft Movie Meal. Those customers then promptly returned to their low-visit-rate habits of more recent vintage after the chain ran out of the figurines used for those meals.
Wendy’s, too, generated ultra-strong same-store sales a year ago in October when it released its collaboration with the Nickelodeon program Spongebob Squarepants, only to return to weak sales thereafter.
And so while the company could use the boost from a strong PSL season, and it would be bad if the season were a dud, that alone won’t get Starbucks on the right track. What will is getting customers in the door during those days when the PSL isn’t on the menu.