Restaurant industry stocks in the first half of 2025 have largely followed Wall Street’s lead: They’re swerving all over the place.
Consider this: 14 restaurant company stocks have increased at least 10% in the first half of this year, while 13 have declined by that much.
Four stocks—Sweetgreen, Fat Brands, Jack in the Box and Krispy Kreme—have lost at least half of their market values this year. And five—the One Group, Brinker International, Cheesecake Factory, BJ’s and Potbelly—have increased their values by at least 30%.
Add it all up and you get an industry that has largely followed the broader market. The median restaurant company stock rose 3.5% so far this year through the end of trading on Monday. By comparison, all three major stock indices are up 5% so far this year.
Stocks plunged in the first few months of the year amid economic concerns brought on by a series of executive orders instituting tariffs on trading partners like China, Canada, Mexico and numerous other countries.
But they have recovered since mid-April, largely as that talk quieted down and there is yet to be any indication of an impact on prices or the broader economy.
Restaurant stocks have largely undergone a similar trajectory. Economic concerns hammered many stocks, particularly after several executives blamed consumer challenges on their own weak sales.
What restaurants have recovered has depended on a variety of factors, most notably company performance.
Unsurprisingly, fast-casual chain stocks, where the median share is up 8.2%, performed best.
But the four best-performing stocks so far this year are all full-service companies. And six full-service companies have seen their stocks increase more than 10%, including also Darden Restaurants and Cracker Barrel.
In general, the median casual-dining chain stock is up 3.9% so far this year.
Full-service restaurant chain sales surprisingly outperformed fast-food sales so far this year, which have helped many companies’ stocks. Brinker in particular has thrived thanks to extraordinary same-store sales growth, including more than 30% each of the past two quarters.
Its stock is up 154% over the past 12 months, adding well over $5 billion in additional market value over that period. The stock is worth nearly four times that of the fast-food chain Wendy’s.
Indeed, fast-food chain stocks are up just 0.6% so far amid traffic challenges at several major companies.
Four quick-service companies, including Dutch Bros, Papa Johns, Steak n Shake owner Biglari Holdings and Taco Bell owner Yum Brands, are up at least 10%. But five fast-food companies, also including the burger chain Good Times and Wendy’s, have lost at least 30% of their value. And the three worst-performing stocks are all fast-food chains.
The worst-performing stock, Krispy Kreme, has lost 71% of its valuation this year. The company’s stock has plunged amid the end of its deal with McDonald’s, along with falling sales and profitability.
Jack in the Box, likewise, has profitability concerns, which led to the departure of CEO Darin Harris earlier this year and the hiring of CFO Lance Tucker as his replacement.