The largest round of restaurant earnings have been reported and, much like 2025, they varied greatly and provided almost no real indication of where the industry is at right now.
Among the companies that have reported, average same-store sales were about flat. A few competitors opened gaps, as McDonald’s and Burger King did with Wendy’s and Jack in the Box or Domino’s did with the field in the pizza business.
If anything, the quarter proved that the restaurant business right now is difficult, but not disastrously so, and companies with the right combination of marketing, operations and leadership can thrive.
Here’s our look at the quarter’s winners and losers.
Winner: The beverage business
The top sales result belonged to Black Rock Coffee Bar, which on Tuesday reported 9.3% same-store sales growth, proving that going public is a good thing. But it’s also good to be a beverage brand, as Dutch Bros reported 7.7% same-store sales growth.
This will do nothing to discourage McDonald’s, Taco Bell, etc., from continuing to push into this business.
Loser: Sweetgreen
I’m still not remotely sure how Sweetgreen fell off the cliff that it did. But the chain’s traffic declined 13.3% in the fourth quarter, meaning the average store lost about one out of 7.5 visits.
Is it the rejection of the “slop bowl” trend? Maybe. Are people just eating meat now and not salads? Perhaps. Is it too expensive? I guess. But its sales are so much worse than fellow bowl purveyors Chipotle and Cava and the three have roughly the same average check.
Winner: McDonald’s
The 6.8% same-store sales growth the fast-food giant reported in the fourth quarter was stronger than many of us expected. It came at a good time for the chain.
Some of that was due to yet another ultra popular marketing promotion, the Grinch Meal. But the company’s lower-priced Extra Value Meals also appeared to generate traffic among the lower-income consumers it has been shedding for the past couple of years.
Given just how much political capital executives spent with franchisees to get those value meal prices lowered, that was a pretty crucial result.
Loser: Wendy’s
A lot of what Wendy’s has done over the past couple of months make sense. But the fact that the fast-food chain has fallen to this point remains one of the more stunning developments of 2025.
The chain’s same-store sales fell 11.3%. That is a massive decline. The chain is again closing restaurants and is giving operators the ability to skip breakfast. And it still doesn’t have a permanent CEO after seven months.
Winner: Brian Niccol’s reputation
This is probably a subset of the beverage business. But Starbucks’ 4% same-store sales increase last quarter came was a big one.
The coffee shop giant was dealing with a surprisingly stubborn sales slump at a time when everybody is talking about the success of the beverage business. Niccol was brought in from Chipotle in 2023 to right the ship, and the result solidified his reputation as one of the country’s best chief executives.
Loser: The fast-casual sector
Only two fast-casual chains, Shake Shack and Cava, reported same-store sales in positive territory.
The rest of them lost sales, some of them quite badly. While in some cases (Wingstop, which reported a 5.8% decline in same-store sales) they were up against difficult comparisons, 2025 dulled the sector’s sheen. Chains like Chipotle, Sweetgreen and Portillo’s are now facing major questions about their strategies, pricing and business models.
Winner: Operations executives
A lot of restaurant companies are using operations as a central element in their fix-it plans.
Several chains that are facing challenges are boosting their operations efforts, including Wendy’s and Popeyes. Companies like Wingstop are investing in new kitchen equipment. Executives are watching the results at companies like Chili’s, Burger King and Starbucks that have spent the past couple of years to improve the way restaurants are operated.