Leadership

Restaurant employers are heading toward an avalanche of minimum-wage hikes

Neary half the states are slated to raise their pay floors in 2025, with the increases averaging 75 cents an hour. At least five will be above $15 an hour.
The national average wage is expected to increase 4.2%. | Photo: Shutterstock

The minimum wages of 23 states are set to rise in 2025, with increases ranging from 25 cents an hour in Montana to $2.15 in Michigan, according to the election-tracking site Ballotpedia.com.

The hikes for most of the states—19 of the 23—are scheduled to go into effect Jan. 1, with the upswing coming in three others on July 1. Florida’s minimum will jump by $1 on Sept. 20, to $14 an hour.

Michigan will see an increase both on Jan. 1 and on Feb. 21, with a phase-out of the tip credit also slated to begin at the latter time. 

The average increase is 75 cents an hour, which would bring the nationwide mean to $11.18 an hour, a 4.6% increase from the 2024 level, Ballotpedia reported. 

Factored into the 2025 average are the pay rates for the seven states that don’t have a minimum wage. In those jurisdictions, employers are obliged to pay the minimum allowed under federal law of $7.25 an hour. 

Two states—Georgia and Wyoming—technically have rates below $7.25 an hour, but U.S. law requires employers there to at least meet the federal minimum.

The numbers suggest considerable variation in pay levels from state to state. The five jurisdictions with the highest minimum wages will require restaurants and employers to pay more than double the threshold mandated in the lowest paying areas. 

Washington, D.C., which is not included in the state counts, already has the highest across-the-board rate in the country, with restaurateurs and other employers required to pay at least $17.50 an hour. That lead will be extended on July 1 when District officials adjust the floor in accordance with changes in the cost of living. 

Most fast-food workers in California are entitled to at least $20 an hour, or roughly 25% more than their counterparts in full-service are due. 

Rounding out the top five jurisdictions with the highest rates for all workers are Washington (whose rate will rise next year to $16.66 an hour); California ($16.50); Connecticut ($16.35); and New York ($15.50), though the exact level varies in the Empire State from region to region. 

Ballotpedia noted that Oregon’s pay rates also vary by region.

A state-by-state rundown of how wage rates will change in 2025 can be found here. 

Ballotpedia is widely used by politicos and students of politics to track elections at all governmental levels in fine detail. Because ballot initiatives have become a common way for labor proponents to push for wage increases, the operation also monitors labor-related referenda. 

It noted that proposals were on the November ballot to raise the minimum wage of California and scuttle Massachusetts’ tip credit. Both were defeated, marking the first time since 1996 that voters have opted not to raise the pay of fellow residents.

Political analysts attributed the outcome in California to residents’ belief their buying power has been eroded by inflation and would likely be further weakened by the price-lifting effect of a major hike in labor costs. 

Since 1996, 28 of the 32 wage-hike proposals that made it to a state ballot were approved by voters, according to Ballotpedia.

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