There’s never a dull moment in the restaurant industry, and this year is shaping up to be no different.
War, weed, weight-loss drugs, an aging population and even the food pyramid itself are conspiring to create an uncertain backdrop for restaurants in 2026 and beyond. That’s according to experts from Technomic, who shared their take on the state of the industry Tuesday during the Restaurant Leadership Conference in Phoenix.
Restaurants have weathered a difficult couple of years. Traffic was down 0.8% industrywide in 2025, about the same as 2024, despite a brutal macroeconomic environment.
“This is the second year in a row we're giving this speech at a moment where consumer confidence is at a precarious level,” said Rich Shank, senior principal and VP of innovation with Technomic. “What's exciting about what we saw last year is there was a tremendous amount of resilience in the market.”
2026 got off to a good start. Through the first two months of the year, traffic was strong, Shank said, though it slowed to flat in March as impacts from the war in Iran began to set in.
The war and its fallout could play a major role in how the rest of the year unfolds. Iran’s lockdown of the Strait of Hormuz has driven gas prices past $4 a gallon nationwide on average. And the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is now expecting U.S. inflation to reach 4.2% in 2026, a sharp increase from its projection of 3.2% before the war began.
“If that happens, we would expect some potential traffic patterns to change later in the year as a consequence, and that most of our growth would potentially be coming from that inflation this year,” Shank said.
He noted that menu price hikes are already starting to tick up again after normalizing toward the end of last year.
Here are five other forces that Technomic believes could be potentially disruptive for restaurants.
A new food pyramid
New USDA guidelines flipped the food pyramid on its head earlier this year, putting an emphasis on protein and healthy fats and downplaying whole grains and sugars. The new structure aligns with the Make America Healthy Again movement led by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and coincides with a trend toward more protein on restaurant menus.
But not everyone agrees on the new guidelines. The American Heart Association, for example, is prioritizing plant-based proteins instead of red meat. The mixed signals are creating uncertainty for restaurants, said Lizzy Freier, senior director of menu research and insights for Technomic.
The guidelines not only affect menu trends, but also things like school meals and institutional food standards. “This is one that needs to be very much regularly monitored,” Freier said.
The highs and lows of weed
Recreational weed is now legal in 24 states, but, like the food pyramid, cannabis is facing some uncertainty as the Trump administration pushes for tighter restrictions at the federal level.
For restaurants, the biggest concern is at the bar. According to Technomic, 57% of consumers replace alcohol with weed at least once a month, which could hurt bar sales, while also creating opportunities in the THC- and alcohol-free beverage sectors.
Overall, weed remains a rapidly evolving situation, Freier said.
GLP-1s hit the menu
One in eight adults is currently taking or recently took a weight-loss drug, and those numbers continue to rise. Users tend to avoid alcohol, fried foods and sugary drinks, and when they eat, they get fuller faster.
All of that has obvious implications for restaurants.
Some have responded with items expressly geared toward GLP-1 users, such as Smoothie King’s line of GLP-1 smoothies that are heavy on protein and light on sugar. Others have taken a more subtle approach, offering smaller portions that highlight essential nutrients like protein.
But don’t expect restaurant menus to go totally health-forward. When consumers go out to eat, they typically want to indulge, even in smaller amounts.
“What we're gonna continue to see operators do is apply macros and call out things like protein and fiber on their craveable fare, too, especially to appeal to those on GLP-1s,” Freier said.
Changes in regulations and pricing of these drugs could further shift how they impact restaurants, she added.
A slowing, aging population
Population growth plays a huge role in overall restaurant growth. Historically, as much as 50% to 60% of the industry’s growth was driven simply by having more people to feed each year, Shank said.
The problem is, population growth has been slowing for a while now. From 1972 to 2010, the U.S. grew by about 1% every year on average. From 2010 to 2025, that fell to 0.7%, and over the next four years, it’s expected to drop to 0.2%.
Lower birth rates, an aging population and stricter immigration policies are keeping a lid on the country’s head count.
This means restaurants may have to change their expectations for how fast they can grow long-term. And as younger people move into middle age, they need to start thinking about how they can appeal both to them and their children.
“That is a big part of how the generational shift in restaurant traffic happens. Like, ‘That's my parents' brand. I'm going somewhere else,’” Shank said. “How we keep them both in the market at the same time in the future is gonna be important.”
On one hand, the heaviest restaurant users—people in their late 20s and mid-life—will continue to make up a big portion of the market. At the same time, more and more boomers are retiring each year, which typically leads people to eat more meals at home. Right now, that group makes up about 18% of the market, up from 11% in the 1970s.
“How do we get them out of their house and staying in the market is gonna be a challenge that we have to solve as an industry,” Shank said.
Ordering channel changes
Digital orders—those that come through a website, mobile app or kiosk—now account for about three-fourths of all restaurant transactions. At quick-service concepts in particular, that number is still growing.
These orders have their benefits for both restaurants and consumers. They can be more convenient and can generate higher check averages. But they also tend to leave customers feeling underwhelmed.
According to Technomic, 50% of consumers report being satisfied when ordering digitally, compared to 54% who order in person. Shank suggested that digital customers may be missing some of that human touch.
“What's happening in those digital orders is … many of our transactions can become, literally, transactional,” he said.
Some restaurants have addressed this issue by investing in their service and operations. Shank pointed to Wendy’s and Chili’s as brands that have made this a priority, and noted that chains that made those types of investments grew eight times faster than the average in 2025.
Amid all of the turbulence today, ensuring good service no matter how customers order is one of the smartest things restaurants can do, Shank said.
“Make sure all of it is set up to delight your customers, because right now, in this moment, that moment of delight is the thing that's gonna keep them coming back,” he said.
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