The past year didn’t bring the sort of radical changes that upended business as usual for restaurants in 2020 and 2021, but the slog toward a post-pandemic normal left its own impressions on the business. Here are the trends that took hold in what proved a year of transition.
Drive-thru envy
The convenience and safety of having an order passed from kitchen to car was not lost on the multitude of restaurant operations that lacked the service option. Casual restaurants tried to co-opt the appeal by touting curbside delivery services, but even some of those full-service specialists threw in the napkin and decided to give drive-thru a try. Witness the reconfigurations of Famous Dave’s and Smokey Bones barbecue outlets.
But that movement was but a ripple in comparison to the wave that hit the fast-casual segment. Big players like Chipotle and Starbucks signaled that drive-thrus (or Chipotlanes, in the instance of Chipotle) would be more or less standard features of the brands going forward. Drive-thrus would be embraced by all sorts of initial scoffers, including Sweetgreen, Shake Shack and Velvet Taco.
Fast-food brands didn’t sit idle as their one-time signature spread to other segments. Their response was to go even deeper into that channel, adding pick-up only lanes and additional drive-up stations while cutting their on-site seating. Taco Bell fired up a new two-story format where a kitchen on the second floor supplies the meals to four drive-thru lanes below it. Even McDonald’s unveiled a scaled-down unit with dual drive-ups, limited seating and an emphasis on to-go service.
Unionization
The history books should record 2022 as the year organized labor finally got a foothold in the chain restaurant business. The breakthrough actually started in mid-December 2021, when the staffs of two Starbucks units voted to unionize. A year later, Starbucks Workers United is representing the employees of more than 250 units just within that chain.
The wave has pulled along about a half-dozen small coffee chains, from Colectivo in Chicago to La Colombe in Washington, D.C., and Darwin’s in Boston. More recently, the movement has spread to Chipotle and Peet’s, albeit on an extremely limited basis—roughly one store within each brand.
Those aren’t the only ways that unions have flexed their increasing strength within the restaurant business. Weeks ago, strikes shut down Sysco facilities at least temporarily in New England and Arizona. And in California, the Service Employees International Union successfully lobbied for the Fast Act, a first-of-its-kind law that gives employees of big fast-food chains a say and legally binding vote on what they’re paid.
The Great Resignation and quiet quitting
One current that carried over from the bleakest days of the pandemic was an aversion to working in restaurants. That mounting disdain for foodservice jobs was clearly reflected in the twin phenomena of the Great Resignation and quiet quitting, or not doing a speck of more work than what will get you a paycheck instead of a pink slip.
In January, 6% of everyone employed in the hospitality business left their jobs, according to federal statistics. That’s about 800,000 people, truly a great resignation. The industry wasn’t alone in seeing a mass exodus through employee resignations, but the proportion of restaurant and hotel workers who told their bosses to shove it was more than double the share of quitters in other fields.
Quiet quitting is the chronic variation of the Great Resignation. Essentially, it’s a refusal to go above and beyond the most basic of job duties, even if that reluctance might get you fired or passed over for promotion. It extends across all industries, though anecdotal evidence suggests restaurants are particularly susceptible.
Pickleball
Conventional wisdom holds that consumers are hungering for invigorating experiences and activities when they arise from their living room couches for a night out. Pickleball is emerging as the diversion of choice.
A hybrid of ping pong, badminton and tennis, pickleball is widely regarded as the fastest-growing sport in the U.S. at the moment. Although it requires what looks like a miniature tennis court to play, restaurants are embracing it as a boon to bar sales. Players are close enough to one another during matches to chat among themselves. That provides the social foundation that fuels cocktail consumption and post-game dinners.
Several industry veterans are already trying to capitalize on the popularity by launching pickleball-restaurant hybrids. More are certain to follow.
Subscription programs
This is the sleeper of the bunch. Before the pandemic took hold, a few adventurous concepts were already experimenting with programs that provided customers with premium products and services in exchange for a monthly fee paid upfront.
The common model was to collect a bargain price at the start of a month for a daily cup of coffee or other liquid refresher. BJ’s Restaurants had a beer club. Panera offered a coffee subscription.
But the arrangements didn’t stop with drinks. DoorDash provided customers who paid a monthly fee with what’s called the DashPass, essentially a designation that entitles the bearer to a certain volume of free deliveries. Taco Bell launched a taco subscription service, and On The Border started one called the Queso Club.
Now we’re seeing the next generation of subscription programs, like Panera’s updated version. In April, the bakery cafe concept launched the Unlimited Sip Club. Members pay $10.99 a month for access to unlimited beverages, including the chain’s new caffeine-enriched “charged” ice teas, as well as iced coffee. The price rises to $11.99 a month on Jan. 4.
Chasing inflation
If there’s a Factoid of the Year, 2022’s measure of menu inflation would likely bag the title. Restaurant prices have leapt 8.6%, a result of operators trying to keep up with the rocket trajectory that food and labor costs have followed.
Still, operators say the climb in menu prices hasn’t kept up with the near-vertical spike in variable costs. The pressure on margins has some operators trying “shrinkflation,” or freezing the price of some menu items while cutting the portion size.
Domino’s, for instance, trimmed an order of wings to eight pieces, from the prior standard of 10. Some Burger King units are now charging the same for eight chicken nuggets that it previously charged for 10.
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