Are calendars running fast this year, or is it really mid-June already? The days have slipped past so quickly that even an obsessed restaurant watcher may have missed some of the currents nudging the industry this way or that in 2024. The question is, Which are true changes in direction, and which are merely ripples likely to be counter-steered by year’s end, if not totally forgotten?
Yes, it’s time to play trend or fad, using the ample fodder from the initial half of 2024. Here’s the first crop of developments to be run through the sorting machine.
Smashed burgers. No, not the chain with a similar-sounding name. We’re talking here about burgers that are cooked the way they were in my childhood home. You press down hard on the burger with a spatula to give the grill or pan side of the patty a nice crust. Then flip it over to give the same sort of sear to the other side.
Yes, it’s Smashburger’s signature style. But now you can get a smashed burger at any number of other places, including big chains like Jack in the Box, aka the home of the Smashed Jack. The new sandwich proved so popular after its January introduction that the chain said it depleted supplies within two weeks (though it’s not clear if the shortage was planned, an increasingly frequent marketing ploy that might also merit a trend-or-fad judgment).
Mellow Mushroom is known more for pizza than burgers, but it’s hoping to up its sandwich sales by swapping the single large patty traditionally used in its burgers with two smashed patties.
Red Robin also switched to burger smashing, mothballing the chain conveyor grills it had been using. The new patties are a big part of the casual chain’s turnaround strategy.
The true litmus test of whether something’s a fad or trend is how far it penetrates the mainstream. McDonald’s, the ultimate broad-market concept, hasn’t switched to a full Monty of a smashed burger, but a key selling point of its new and supposedly improved patties is the sear they’re getting to hold in juices and flavor.
So what’s the verdict? This is a trend, all the way.
Anything “swicy.” If the glacier that swallowed you in December is just now melting, you may not be aware that products combining sweetness and spiciness were a veritable rage this year and last. The notion isn’t new. But the clunker of a label clearly is. Some might say it’s just the hot honey craze rechristened in hopes of getting a second wave of buzz on social media.
Okay, the spicy element does provide a new twist. But the constant remains the hot honey, be it used on a pizza (ala Pizza Hut’s Hot Honey Pizza), wings (the Hut’s Hot Honey Wings) or Korean-style fried chicken (Bonchon’s chicken with swicy Yum Yum sauce), The use of the sticky sweetener is so widespread that McDonald’s likely wouldn’t touch it at this point; it’s too prevalent.
My prediction: Many foodies will strain their tongues trying to pronounce “swicy,” leading to a decline in the use of that label. But the hot honey/high spice combination will prevail as a must-have option, like ranch dressing. So let’s call it a fand, as in fad + trend.
Age restrictions. Not all of the trends or fads that emerged so far this year are food-related. Look at the age thresholds an increasing number of operators are using to limit which guests are allowed in the door.
At Bliss, a Caribbean restaurant near St. Louis, you won’t be permitted to enter after 7 p.m. unless you’re a man over age 35 or a woman willing to admit she’s over 30. And you have to be able to prove it.
The idea, according to the proprietor, is to maintain a certain ambience—in the case of Bliss, a sophisticated, sexual undertone and a sense that this is the place to meet someone for a serious relationship, not a singles meat market.
It’s not alone in unabashedly limiting entrance to persons of a certain age. Andaaz, an Indian restaurant in Franklin Park, N.J., reportedly has a policy of not admitting anyone under age 5. The goal is to appeal to parents, but not necessarily young families. It also frees the chef from having to draft a kids menu that features more than chicken fingers and pizza.
The policies are controversial. Andaaz, which opened in April, originally set an age threshold of 10.
An Indianapolis restaurant called Plantastic Indy also limited admittance to consumers over age 5, but closed for a day after the policy drew death threats. As of this posting, it was still apparently reassessing.
Hop Cat, the gastropub chain, used to strictly limit entrance after 9 p.m. to customers aged 21 or above. That standard enabled the concept to focus on true beer afficionados who wanted to try new craft brews, which are a key part of the concept’s appeal.
But parent company BarFly says the dynamics of the nighttime market were scrambled by the pandemic. Because of those new realities, the age requirement was dropped.
So this ripple looks like a fad that’s already fading because of public resistance.
Composed dishes. If this were a decade ago, we might be talking here about the trend toward customizing orders, a movement given considerable topspin by the proliferation of concepts using Chipotle’s production-line model. Momentum has since been added by the widespread adoption of mobile apps, which enable users to finely personalize their orders. You can request extra sauce or a dollop of guacamole just by hitting a button.
Now come signs that the pendulum is swinging in the other direction. A major element of Subway’s rebound was its Subway Series of composed sandwiches, orderable by number. The brand was a pioneer of customization, having pioneered the assembly process used by Chipotle. But now it’s advertising subs made in accordance with standardized recipes.
It’s not alone in pushing completed options. Denny’s new menu aims to “simplify and minimize customizations,” CEO Kelli Valade told Wall Street in April. And, she added, the strategy is working, “with the create-your-own categories down as a percentage of mix on the menu and signature curated plates increasing.”
It’s a change in direction the Piada Italian Street Food chain undertook a while ago. The regional chain, which uses a Chipotle-like assembly line, found that patrons were creating abominations with their outlandish builds. Seemingly, they were spec’ing the components more out of curiosity than a mindfulness to the taste. The results were often dishes that were horrible, potentially souring guests on the concept.
Now it’s pushing more composed offerings.
The benefits are obvious. Said Valade: “This helps us with order accuracy, makes servers’ lives easier and speeds up ticket times without any impact to the guest as they are always welcome to customize any order.”
So this looks like a trend with an unspecified time limit. More operators are likely to push pre-set selections—until the pendulum swings back to more customization.
We’ll be back with more trends at the end of 2024. But did we miss any from the year’s first half? Let us know via peter.romeo@informa.com.