An article published last week by The Atlantic claims that delivery is “killing restaurant culture” by turning Americans into “a nation of order-inners.”
While it’s true that restaurants are struggling mightily right now, blaming delivery is a bit too, well, convenient.
Before we get into why that is, we should point out that the article does get some things right. It notes that about three of every four restaurant meals are now consumed outside of the restaurant, citing National Restaurant Association data. And it illustrates how the growing popularity of delivery and pickup has reshaped operations at many restaurants. At full-service places, for instance, about 30% of orders are now taken to go, far more than before the pandemic.
But the article also attempts to equate these changes with a sort of existential crisis for restaurants. It suggests that the convenience of delivery is keeping the dining public plastered to the couch, sucking the soul out of local establishments in the process. “In effect, delivery has reversed the flow of eaters to food, and remade a shared experience into a much more individual one,” the article reads.
It’s a convenient argument. After all, apps like DoorDash and Uber Eats have continued to grow rapidly while restaurant traffic slumps. The optics are not great.
At the same time, delivery is still a relatively small business, accounting for just 12% of total industry sales last year, according to Technomic. And though that number has nearly doubled since 2019, there is little evidence to show that consumers are consistently replacing in-restaurant visits with delivery orders.
Despite restaurants’ broader issues, consumers are still going out to eat. According to data from online reservations platform OpenTable, U.S. restaurant covers have been up every month this year compared to 2024.
Meanwhile, the hottest chain restaurant in the country is Chili’s, the sit-down bar and grill concept, where traffic jumped 13% last quarter. Customers have flocked there to get $10.99 combo meals and take TikTok videos of cheese pulls. Indeed, casual dining has been the industry’s hottest segment this year, which is not what you’d expect from a nation of order-inners.
So while eating dinner in your pajamas has its perks, there still appears to be healthy demand for the in-person dining experience as well.
“I don’t know if delivery will ever substitute that point of human connection,” said Pablo Rivero, CEO of reservations providers Resy and Tock, in an interview. He recalled how consumers rushed back to restaurants after COVID restrictions were lifted in 2021. And he noted that while some restaurants are certainly feeling the effects of a difficult economy today, reservations and covers are on the rise overall.
Restaurants themselves say that while delivery is in fact growing, it’s not coming at the expense of butts in seats. Consider these soundbites from a handful of chain-restaurant earnings calls:
- “There's very little overlap between our dine-in guests and our delivery guests,” Olive Garden CEO Rick Cardenas said in March.
- Starbucks’ surging delivery business “looks to be highly incremental,” CEO Brian Niccol said in July.
- “We believe that third-party delivery occasions are incremental, not a replacement for in-restaurant dining visits,” said First Watch CEO Chris Tomasso in August.
What this suggests is that customers who order delivery are a different audience than those who are going out to eat. Either that, or they’re doing both, but treating them as separate occasions: Order delivery in a pinch, but go out when you want the full experience.
Now, this doesn’t mean that delivery has been a net positive for restaurants—not even close. As the Atlantic article rightly points out, the service comes at a hefty cost for operators, who may pay up to a 30% commission on each order. That means delivery is generally less profitable and, because orders originate with a third party, the restaurant gets little customer data from those transactions. More recently, the apps have pushed restaurants to invest in discounts and promotions within their marketplaces, which has further cut into operators’ delivery margins.
In extreme cases, this uneasy relationship has led to some restaurants’ demise. Last year, fast-casual chain Tocaya largely blamed an over-reliance on third-party delivery for forcing it into bankruptcy, for instance.
But does this mean delivery is “killing restaurant culture?” I just don’t see it.
For most restaurants, delivery has become a necessary evil. It’s not the most restaurant-friendly ordering channel, to be sure, but it is manageable with the right strategy. And it’s far from operators’ biggest concern right now. According to Technomic, that would be food costs, followed by labor costs, tariffs and employee recruitment and retention.
Delivery’s less-than-stellar public image makes it an easy scapegoat for restaurants’ current problems. And the number of people who will pay a premium to have lukewarm food brought to them by a low-wage gig worker does hint at some fundamental cracks in our social fabric.
But it’s those other factors outlined above—rising costs, staffing challenges and economic uncertainty—that are having the biggest impact on restaurant dining rooms right now.