Restaurants have started the summer with a hiring bang, but when all is said and done the season may turn out to be a dud.
Restaurants are expected to add 450,000 seasonal jobs this summer, according to the National Restaurant Association’s annual Eating and Drinking Place Summer Employment Forecast.
That would be down from last year’s 469,000 seasonal jobs. It will also be the third straight year in which summer hiring will be below 500,000 workers.
Blame the usual suspect: Economic uncertainty. “We’re still in an environment where the consumer is uncertain,” Chad Moutray, chief economist with the National Restaurant Association, said in an interview.
Restaurants and bars added 48,000 jobs in May, leading a surprisingly robust labor market despite overall economic concerns. Moutray believes that the hiring level represented seasonal hiring, particularly in advance of the World Cup this summer.
Yet the industry also faces challenges. Three quarters of the association’s members said they expect staffing to remain the same over the summer and restaurant traffic has softened in recent months.
That led the association to lower expectations for the industry’s summer hiring. “Not only are consumers uncertain, I think businesses are also uncertain,” Moutry said.
That said, there are some factors working in the industry’s favor. The World Cup has drawn more international travelers, though not as much as pre-pandemic levels. And hiring has been picking up so far this year. The industry has averaged nearly 19,000 new jobs per month so far this year, its highest rate in 2022. By comparison, the industry has averaged about 5,000 new monthly jobs in 2024 and 2025.
“The good news is we’re still hiring,” Moutray said, saying that restaurants are the second most prolific hiring industry in the country, after construction.
Another factor in the association’s more muted projections for hiring this summer is teen employment.
There were 6 million teenagers age 16 to 19 in the labor force in April, down 200,000 from the same month a year ago, though 700,000 above where it was in 2019. That group makes up 20% of the restaurant industry’s workforce.
Likewise, there were 15.4 million 20 to 24-year-olds in the workforce in April, down by 100,000 from a year ago.
“It’s a big concern for the industry,” Moutray said. “We’re America’s training ground. That’s how we often advertise ourselves. Half of all Americans got their first job in a restaurant. Many people get those basic skills in those early years, learning how to deal with difficult people, having to deal with the lunch rush or dinner rush.
“I worry that if people don’t get those skills early on, that means they’re going to be exposed to some of those skills post-college, and they may not have the benefit of having that job in their teen years.”
On the other hand, the number of adults 65 and older who are in the labor force is increasing. There were 12 million such workers in April, up by 300,000 compared with the year before, and 2.7 million more than April a decade ago.
“We are an aging population,” Moutray said. “We have a lot more retiree-age folks who are in the market working in restaurants, and that’s a good thing. You’re seeing a bit more of a shift, of older people taking jobs that teenagers might have had.”
Members help make our journalism possible. Become a Restaurant Business member today and unlock exclusive benefits, including unlimited access to all of our content. Sign up here.