Every metropolitan market in the United States experienced net immigration declines from 2024 to 2025. New data released by the U.S. Census Bureau finds that population growth either slowed or turned negative in 75% of all counties last year.
Consequently, the U.S. labor-force participation rate fell to 61.9% in March, its lowest level since 1977 apart from the pandemic.
This population shift has major implications for restaurants, according to the National Restaurant Association, as nearly one in four of the industry’s employees are immigrants. The association notes that recent immigration policy changes have hurt 55% of restaurant operators, while 25% say they are having trouble hiring and retaining employees. Further, 37% are experiencing traffic and sales declines, and 18% have experienced employees not coming to work.
Texas is particularly impacted, with the second-highest immigration workforce in the U.S., as well as the second-largest restaurant industry, behind California. The current challenges initiated by immigration policy changes have affected the economic flow into restaurants, according to Texas Restaurant Association President and CEO Emily Williams Knight.
“We’ve been all over the state in the past few weeks and there is a clear absence of people spending in restaurants because people are afraid to go out to eat. A lot of people who work in restaurants are also scared to show up. There is a lot of activity with people changing their behaviors,” she said during a recent interview. “Sales are falling, but there is no room to take margin hits now, and that’s why we’re seeing more closures. We have to fix this … yesterday.”
The TRA, led by Knight and Chief Public Affairs Officer Kelsey Erickson Streufert, recently formed Seat the Table with their partners from the American Business Immigration Coalition to advocate for such fixes. They recruited more than 20 hospitality industry and agricultural groups including the James Beard Foundation, the Independent Restaurant Coalition, and Nebraska and Illinois restaurant associations to launch a national campaign called Keep Food on the Table. They’re calling for every state to join, and their objective is to push the immigration conversation forward without divisiveness.
“This isn’t political, it’s economic, and it’s unfortunate that it’s become a pollical pawn,” Knight said. “If you think about planting, picking, processing, cooking, serving—all those things have to work together and when they don’t, costs go up. Immigrants play a critical role in every part of that food chain, and if we don’t fix this, we’ll continue to see rising costs and that will continue to impact operators and consumers. They’ve been through enough.”
The immediate solution, Knight and Streufert say, is to get President Trump to sign work permit legislation for “long-term vetted immigrants” who have been in the country for at least five years. Streufert said work permit solutions will help ensure there are enough bussers, dishwashers, and cooks to keep the lights on, as well as enough customers to support the business.
“We have to connect this to prices. We know voters across the political spectrum consider affordability to be their biggest issue,” she said. “The data tells us sales and traffic are down in part because of the impact current immigration policies are having on consumers and the workforce. It’s restricting restaurants’ ability to make the math work.”
Knight added that such a solution doesn’t require Congressional approval and can therefore meet the urgency.
“Work permits can have a significant impact overnight and the President, with the stroke of a pen, could create a tremendous benefit there,” Streufert added.
Simultaneously, the coalition is also advocating for the passage of the Dignity Act, which does require Congressional approval, and would provide a pathway to legal status — not citizenship — to address labor shortages. Streufert said 40 lawmakers have signed on as co-sponsors of the Dignity Act, which is “something I’ve not seen in a long time. So, that is hopeful.”
The bipartisan support comes from the act covering multiple priorities, from funding to secure the border to specific protections for Dreamers, who were brought to the U.S. as children. For those who have been here at least five years, they can pay a fine and apply to get a legal work permit. The legislation also includes funding for job training programs.
“The reason we haven’t done (immigration reform) for 40 years is because it has become a political pawn. There’s nothing to run on if you solve the one thing that divides people the most.” -TRA CEO Emily Williams Knight.
“It’s a thoughtful, balanced approach,” Streufert said. “It helps answer the plan for folks who have been here. They don’t qualify for citizenship but instead pay a fine. They’re not eligible for government benefits, so it isn’t a handout. It’s a way for these people to come out of the shadows and legally contribute to the economy and their communities. It’s not political, it’s saying ‘we need people, they’re here, let’s treat them with dignity, and let them contribute.’”
Knight and Streufert recently spent more than a month traveling throughout Texas listening to operators to understand their most pressing policy needs. At the top of the list, across the board, was immigration reform. They followed up that tour with a trip to Washington, D.C., to lobby for such reform. Knight said the experiences reiterated just how urgent it is to find a solution.
“There are too many things impacting restaurants right now that are out of operators’ control,” she said. “Even higher-income consumers are getting nervous. The work permit piece is one thing we could solve today and put some certainty back into the system to try and shore up traffic and employment.”
She acknowledged, however, that it won’t be easy.
“The reason we haven’t done (immigration reform) for 40 years is because it has become a political pawn,” Knight said. “There’s nothing to run on if you solve the one thing that divides people the most.”
To break through that barrier, the TRA and the Seat the Table coalition plan to keep talking about the need for change from an economic lens. Knight said the topic becomes less controversial if voters understand how the issue impacts their wallets directly. Streufert added that the TRA is the right entity to be leading the conversation.
“We can take the political sting on this because we are a red state, a free market state, and we are saying it’s a need,” she said. “We’ve polled our voters and 83% agree with the work permit concept. For Texas Republicans, that jumps to 89%.”
Those numbers are giving them some optimism, despite the past year of staunch immigration enforcement and no progress toward work permits or anything related.
“In the past, you had to be all or nothing—like border security or amnesty—as if there aren’t 500 shades of grey,” Streufert said. “What’s shifting now is the border is secure and affordability has become the key issue, so people are starting to reject false choice. We have to start somewhere and that’s why we’re starting with permits. We can’t let this all-or-nothing proposition continue and we can’t let perfect be the enemy of the good.”
Knight reiterated that the timeline is “yesterday.” The recent Texas Roadshow and the inflationary toll from the Iran War have only solidified her conviction, and she is pleading with leaders to get something, anything, done to relieve the immigration crisis gripping the industry.
“We’ve built our businesses on immigrants for decades and we need a system for them to be authorized to work and continue to contribute. We’ve thought long and hard on how to do this — job codes, who pays fines, everything. Bring us to the table and we can work it out,” she said. “Every day that passes is a lost opportunity to fix the affordability crisis.”