When meat analogues first came onto menus, suppliers figured the way to get consumers on board was to make their products look like their carnivore-friendly counterparts as much as possible.
“Is it the shape they’re looking for, or what’s inside it?” asked Ted Xenohristos, co-founder and COO of CAVA, the 254-unit plant-forward fast casual. “If you create an amazing plant-based item, is it important to shape it like a burger or hot dog? Consumers are smart enough to know what’s inside.”
Indeed, their long and unfamiliar ingredient lists are one of the reasons these products may now be losing market share. Consumers in many markets globally are questioning the level of processing in plant-based meat burgers and other analogues, according to Dasha Shore, global food analyst at Mintel.
At first, the novelty of these items prompted trial. But repeat purchases by consumers—many of whom are not vegan or even vegetarian—have dwindled.
The sales figures of alternative meat products, such as that made by Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods, are an indication that there’s a shift away from the early adoption of these overly processed products.
At the end of January, Bloomberg reported that Impossible Foods was laying off another 20% of its employees after downsizing by 6% in 2022. And last October, Beyond Meat cut 19% of its workforce. Deloitte’s Future of Fresh report published last fall concluded that after years of double-digit growth, plant-based meat sales are flat and, “the addressable market may be more limited than many thought.”
“The growth is not as boundless as was once thought,” agreed Suzie Trigg, partner at Dallas-based Haynes Boone and co-chair of the law firm’s Food, Beverage and Restaurant Practice Group. “Although the sector has potential to grow, it won’t favor the early companies.”
Consumers are not only questioning the perceived health and environmental benefits of plant-based meat, the products carry a premium price in both the supermarket case and most restaurants, and inflation is taking its toll.
Although there’s a clear backlash against overprocessed faux meats, plant-based menu items are still coming out of the pipeline. Chick-fil-A, the nation’s third-largest chain, put its breaded cauliflower sandwich in test earlier this month because “guests told us they wanted to add more vegetables into their diets, and they wanted a plant-forward entree that tasted uniquely Chick-fil-A,” Leslie Neslage, director of menu and packaging at Chick-fil-A, said in a statement.
Chick-fil-A’s veggie sandwich, which closely resembles its signature fried chicken sandwich, is less processed, but swapping out chicken for cauliflower sparked political controversy on social media as soon as it launched. It remains to be seen how it will fare in the long run, as other fast-food chains have had mixed results.
Wendy’s introduced a “cleaner” plant-based Spicy Black Bean Burger on its Made to Crave premium sandwich lineup in 2021. Instead of a meat analogue, the build featured a black bean patty flavored with bold spices and layered with chipotle jalapenos, melted pepper jack cheese and spicy chipotle sauce. But it is no longer on the menu.
In an email to Restaurant Business, a spokesperson for the close to 6,000-unit chain stated that “there are no current plans for Wendy’s to bring back the Spicy Black Bean Burger…”
McDonald’s partnered with Beyond Meat to put the McPlant on menus last year. But after testing it in 600 U.S. locations with disappointing results, the burger giant pulled it from the lineup. Pizza Hut and KFC also had little or no traction with processed plant-based meat products. The menu items may temporarily bump up sales initially, but they have to work really well nationally—even in rural locations—to be successful in the long run.
The 2,500-unit Panda Express has stuck with its partnership with Beyond Meat. The Chinese-American chain’s Beyond The Original Orange Chicken had a successful test run as an LTO in 2021 and rolled out nationally last fall. And Burger King and White Castle are still menuing the Impossible Whopper and Impossible Slider respectively.
Some of the early [chain] adopters are doing better, especially those that promoted the items with big marketing dollars, said Trigg. “But others just jumped on the plant-based trend without thorough research.”
But for the most part, meat analogues are not taking off in the fast-food space. The demand is not as great as the industry was led to believe and the products don't pose a serious threat to sales of beef burgers and real chicken.
Growing in new directions
Trigg, who helps companies and restaurant chains pursue strategic growth opportunities through Haynes Boone’s law practice, believes that for meat alternatives to make inroads, they have to evolve to meet consumers’ higher expectations around product quality. “Consumers are looking at the nutritional profile and for short, clean ingredient lists,” she said.
Before the Butcher, a plant-based meat company operating since 2017, has improved its product line in response to the backlash against overprocessing, said CEO Danny O’Malley. The brand simplified its ingredient lists, and the line is free of gluten, GMOs, soy, caramel color and binders. The products also have half the sodium of major competitors, and there’s a renewed focus on nutritional value.
“We’re listening to consumers and making adjustments to offer a cleaner product,” O’Malley said. While burger patty sales remain flat, the company also does plant-based bulk ground beef, turkey and chicken, and has value-added products like Italian ground and taco ground, as well as pulled pork, chorizo and chicken chunks. Schools, colleges, and smaller regional and emerging chains are primary customers.
High prices are also being addressed. “The industry is all working toward trying to stabilize prices so a plant-based burger is comparable in price to a beef burger,” said O’Malley. “As beef prices climb higher [due to the natural cattle production cycle], there will be more price parity. You won’t be seeing an upcharge for plant-based burgers as much.”
Before the Butcher projects single-digit growth late in 2023 and low double-digit growth in 2024.
“What we’re seeing now is a correction. There was so much excitement in the beginning around plant-based as a replacement for meat, but it was not realistic. It’s currently in a valley, but I expect the market to pick up in the third quarter and into 2024,” said O’Malley.
The flexitarian customer
The percentage of vegans and vegetarians in the U.S. hasn’t changed in 30 years, O’Malley admits. So, who is the plant-based consumer, and what are operators doing to put plants on the menu?
“Flexitarians are our core customer, accounting for over 50% of orders,” said CAVA’s Xenohristos. These are the "meat reducers" who may opt for falafel and veggies when they curate a bowl, or choose grilled chicken mixed with lots of vegetables.
Vegetarians make up about 25% of CAVA customers, choosing to add the fast casual’s signature “Crazy Feta” or go straight plant-based. But true vegans are in the minority.
Meat makes up the smallest portion of the chain’s menu; grilled chicken, harissa honey chicken and lamb meatballs are the animal protein choices. Vegetables comprise the majority of ingredients, and scratch-made signatures include falafel, roasted eggplant, lentil tabouli, a roasted Brussels, cauliflower and carrot blend, and the current seasonal selection: Roasted white sweet potatoes.
Staples like hummus, salad dressings and other bases are made at a CAVA-owned production and distribution facility, with a larger one under construction to accommodate the chain’s expansion.
“We’re always working on improving what’s in the line and developing new items,” said Xenohristos, “but our focus will always be on whole foods.”
The fast casual has tried making its own veggie-based meats in the past and he’s not ruling out that future possibility. “We’ve even worked with suppliers on R&D, using our growth and expansion to try to change what’s on the market for the better,” he said.
While several companies are moving toward less processed plant-based meats, most are in the refrigerated or frozen category. High Time Foods recently launched a shelf-stable minced chicken alternative that offers a clean label and increased versatility.
The label lists wheat, peas, mung beans and spices as the ingredients, and the price point matches that of regular chicken, said Aakash Shah, the company’s co-founder.
“We spoke with a lot of chefs, and they told us they didn’t want to use a product that everyone else is using,” Shah said. “Instead of a nugget or burger, this is an ingredient that can adapt to any seasoning or cuisine.”
Bon Me, a limited-service Vietnamese concept with eight locations in the Boston area, crafted the plant-based minced chicken into meatballs with tomato curry and serves them in a banh mi-style sandwich with togarashi and pickled carrots and daikon.
“The product is bland and can be infused with any seasonings and sauces,” said Cindy Lee, Bon Me’s business operations analyst. “When we gathered information from customers who ordered this and our tofu items, some but not all were vegetarian or vegan. We’re still in the testing phase, but eventually want to offer it as an option in bowls, too.”
Lee was drawn to this shelf-stable product because it doesn’t take up freezer or refrigerator space in Bon Me’s small-footprint stores. Plus, it’s easy to execute and requires minimal training; just add seasonings, water and oil.
Familiarity with a chef’s touch
On the full-service side, inventive chefs are showcasing vegetables in popular formats to create craveability, with vegetarian restaurants paving the way.
At Planta, a 10-location multi-concept restaurant, the menu remakes Asian favorites from a plant-based perspective. The items are transformed by co-founder and executive chef David Lee into familiar dishes that attract vegetarians and carnivores alike, said Lee.
“There’s no synthetic food. It’s important that people know what they’re eating,” he said. “You can’t remake a chicken, but you can shallow fry tofu or mushrooms and substitute them in a chicken dish.”
Lee’s “bacon” begins as cremini mushrooms that are seasoned with salt, pepper and liquid smoke, then dehydrated in the oven until crispy. For the “chicken” in his bao slider, he breads shiitakes and turns them into chick’n fried mushrooms to layer with hoisin and pickled cucumber.
Planta’s extensive sushi list includes a California roll filled with hearts of palm that are shredded and mixed with mayo to mimic crab salad, then rolled up with avocado, cucumber and macadamia nuts. There’s also eggplant nigiri and mushroom bacon inari, along with a spicy tuna roll in which watermelon subs for the tuna.
Items top off at $25 for udon with shaved truffles—the most expensive dish. Planta is soon opening a Pan Latin-inspired plant-based location in Marina del Rey, Calif., and another location reimagines Italian food with all plant-based ingredients.
Ladybird, a vegan tapas restaurant in New York City, recently worked with award-wining chef Kwame Onwuachi to curate a multi-course dinner based on three new IQF veggie products in the V’DGZ portfolio from McCain Foods.
The first course featured Corn R’bz, crispy corn-on-the-cob quarters with a light hickory-smoked batter. The kitchen team glazed the corn with housemade plum sauce, pickled ginger and Chinese five spice to resemble char siu barbecued ribs. “The flavor profile is similar to Peking duck,” said Onwuachi. He also uses the glaze on Peking mushrooms at Tatiana, his New York City restaurant.
Cauli W’ngz, large, pickled cauliflower florets with a crispy coating, are designed to be dipped and eaten like chicken wings, but Ladybird incorporated them into a chickpea curry. And Bruss’lz, the third veg in the V’DGZ line, were paired with jerk barbecue, spiced oregano and pearl onion for a Basque-style tapa starring breaded Brussels sprouts.
Onwuachi, who serves several plant-forward dishes at Tatiana, said the Ladybird veggie menu items “evoke emotion and nostalgia” and can readily replace familiar foods without taking away from the eco-system and hurting the planet.
Remaining a niche
Plant-based naysayers point to the McPlant’s failure to take root at McDonald’s as one of the reasons consumer enthusiasm is waning.
Rich Shank, VP Research & Insights for Restaurant Business sister company, Technomic, said their data never supported the level of excitement Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat had for the category. “Our research indicates that McDonald’s should have expected a modest sales mix for this product and that more highly educated, families with children from more urban environments would be more likely to buy this product than small-town and rural consumers,” he said.
Still, less processed vegetarian fast-food burgers, tacos and chicken sandwiches can be a gateway for consumers to eat more plants.
On a much smaller scale, 800+-unit Culver’s launched its Harvest Veggie Burger in 2020. It’s composed of roasted corn, red and green bell peppers, chickpeas, spinach, portobello mushrooms, barley, wheat berries and two types of Wisconsin cheese—queso fresco and domestic Parmesan. The meatless burger remains on the menu.
Mega-chain Taco Bell has long offered black beans as a plant-based choice in its burritos, crunch wraps, chalupas and more. Customers ordering at kiosks can choose Veggie Mode and over 25 menu standbys will be converted to vegetarian options.
Chipotle Mexican Grill rolled out plant-based sofritas on its national menu in 2014 and it remains an option for burritos and bowls. Sofritas are made of chopped or shredded tofu braised with chipotles, roasted poblanos and a blend of spices. Plant-based chorizo landed on Chipotle’s systemwide menu for a limited time last year, with the 3,000-unit chain claiming the pea-based protein is “made from real, fresh ingredients grown on a farm, not in a lab.”
NPD forecasts plant-based alternatives to grow through 2024, driven almost entirely by Millennials and Gen Zs, who are looking for less processed products in sync with their interest in sustainability and animal welfare, in addition to better health.
Trigg suggests that restaurants may want to partner with companies to improve the products, pointing out that major retailers are doing just that. “Plant-based innovation in the startup scene is very strong and restaurants can help companies scale,” she said.
But Technomic’s consumer research indicates the potential for growth will always be limited by the niche interest in the products.
“It’s always going to be a niche market,” said Shank, “but that niche-level consumer demand will remain attractive for savvy menu innovators.”