Mission BBQ may be one of the most impressive restaurant chains in the U.S. right now. No, it wasn’t the fastest-growing chain in the U.S. In fact, 80 restaurant chains on the Technomic Top 500 Chain Restaurant Report grew faster than its 21.2% system sales growth in 2022.
Its unit count grew by just 12 locations, so it wasn’t exactly adding locations with reckless abandon. And at $1.2 million average unit volumes it is not exactly Chick-fil-A.
But Mission BBQ is a barbecue chain. And to be quite frank, such concepts have struggled to generate substantial long-term growth on a national level, at least for long.
Barbecue may be the most difficult menu to take national, in fact. Consider this: Over the past five years, system sales at Mission BBQ have increased 90%. The median for barbecue restaurant chains on the Top 500 ranking was a decline of 3%.
That’s illustrated by weak sales among the three largest chains: Famous Dave’s (system sales down 41% since 2018), Dickey’s Barbecue Pit (down 8%) and Sonny’s BBQ (down 7%).
To be sure, each of the barbecue chains on the ranking appeared to recover last year, with median sales up 7%. But that was still below average for the Top 500 chains and did not meet menu price increases. This, even though barbecue could have theoretically thrived during the recession and post-recession era where takeout mattered and independent concepts struggled. Instead, the barbecue sector has had a brutal few years.
There are several reasons for the difficulties barbecue chains have once they become a large and growing chain.
First, and probably most notable: Chains are at a major disadvantage to local concepts. Many cities have their own independent and small chain restaurants that do not have much of reach beyond their borders but are local powerhouses. That can make it difficult for chains to thrive in an environment.
The menu is also particularly difficult. Done right, barbecue takes hours to prepare. It can be a challenge to operate with enough supply on a daily basis because it’s not as if you can quickly smoke a few extra batches of ribs for an unexpectedly busy dinner rush (or should, anyway).
At the very least, it can be difficult to do it well enough, or certainly well enough to compete adequately with the local concepts out there.
It’s also a celebratory occasion, which limits the overall market.
Then there is this: A lot of people bought grills and smokers in 2020 and 2021 when they were stuck at home with little else to do. Many of these people started making ribs and pulled pork. While grill sales fell considerably last year as people quit buying the time-killing items they acquired during the pandemic, that still meant there was an elevated number of new grills and smokers out there.
We also should point out some challenges at individual chains. Dickey’s, for instance, grew too aggressively for too long through franchising, outkicking its coverage. Famous Dave’s was undone by bad management and has needed years to recover.
To be sure, the level of innovation in the barbecue world means there’s always somebody hoping to beat the odds and make it work. But on balance it is simply one of the most difficult segments in which to succeed.
All of which stands both as a sign of just how impressive Mission BBQ’s growth has been in recent years and a warning for its future.