The United Kingdom may lead the world in exports of TV whodunits, as any viewer of American public-broadcasting stations can attest. But it’s not exactly been a whiteboard for restaurant trends that catch hold here in the former colonies. You won’t find mushy peas or spotted dick on the menu of The Cheesecake Factory, even by page 213. Nor is a U.S. takeout meal likely to be wrapped in a sheet from yesterday’s newspaper. Health officials would shut the place down before a customer could say “Cheers!”
Yet U.S. operators should look across the pond for a preview of how bad things could get here if menu prices continue to soar. Bargain hunters on this side of the Atlantic might hit a Taco Bell or a White Castle for a full belly and money left over. The option for pence-pinchers over there is often a newssheet full of fish and chips. About a fifth of the U.K.’s population visits a “chippy” at least once a week, according to the National Federation of Fish Friers (NFFF), a trade group for the shops.
In many respects, the humble establishments are the U.K.’s fast-food burger joints.
Yet their popularity is dropping as inflation pushes the national staple’s price into nosebleed territory. The bouquets of fried food used to cost Brits a few quid. Now news reports out of the U.K. indicate that a price of more than 15 pounds, roughly the equivalent of $17 in the U.S., is not out of the ordinary.
The NFFF is warning via U.K. media that the nation stands to lose up to a third of its chippies, or more than 3,000 shops, if the status quo persists. Association figures indicate that the universe of fried-fish establishments has already dropped in half since the business’ heyday of the 1920s. If that sounds like long ago, consider that a number of the families that ran shops then are still in the business today.
The current culprit, according to the NFFF, is turmoil elsewhere in Europe. About half the oil used in fish-and-chip fryers had come from Ukraine, and the war has severely crimped the supply chain. Much of the fish—primarily cod and haddock—comes from Russian waters, and maintaining those supplies has become a challenge as well.
Meanwhile, the cost of heating fuel has skyrocketed, further crunching margins.
The NFFF is asking the government to help through tax abatements and other forms of assistance, arguing that a piece of Britain’s heritage and culture is at risk.
Like their cod-frying British counterparts, U.S. restaurateurs have felt the sting of inflation, though the underlying causes may be different. For at least the past year, they’ve also felt a drop in traffic, which adds up to consumers ordering less frequently from restaurants but spending more when they do.
The question, which we’ve raised before in this space, is how much of a price increase U.S. diners will tolerate before they begin starving restaurants. Instead of heading out for a meal, they might fire up some frozen fish sticks and plop themselves in front of the TV and binge-watch Magpie Murders.